2011 Bookish Predictions

January 6, 2011

Kirkus Reviews (Website | Facebook) has recently asked their followers to come up with a short article on their 2011 predictions for the book world.

I took up the challenge, below are my predictions – if you like them (heck, even if you don’t) I’d appreciate a “Like” vote from you on this page (riches and glory are at stake) – just scroll down to my post in the comments section.

"Zoltar" or Zohar - You decide

The past year, 2010 was the “year of the eBook”, I believe that 2011 would be known as “year of the Indie” in the annals of publishing history.

  • Serving the economic interest of authors and readers, independent publishing will no longer be the “last resort” for authors, but the first choice of many authors including prominent ones.  Those authors who have no difficulties getting published will go the independent route.
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  • Authors, who will fully realize the economic incentives behind ePublishing independently, will be publishing faster, charge less yet make more and with greater flexibility.   Suddenly the readers will have access to short stories, volume discounts (in serial books) and many free incentives to read out of their comfort zone.
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  • The eBook market will surpass 20% of book revenues and will be used not only as a publishing tool, but also as a negotiating strategy for “evil and/or wily” agents and crafty authors.
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  • As a result of the above predictions, publishers will increase royalties to authors.  Whether these royalties be from paper books, eBooks or both I am not entirely sure.
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  • As an ardent critic of the way the publishing industry handled the eBook revolution, I predict that the laws of supply and demand be adhered to and eBook prices will be lowered.
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  • Better eReaders/tablets will enable readers to interact with each other, authors and book clubs.  The reading experience will, once again, become social (even though virtually).
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  • Best of all, us readers and not marketing prodigies will decided what will be the next bestsellers (can someone say “international novels”).

Again, I’d appreciate a “Like” vote from you on this page – just scroll down to my post in the comments section

What are your 2011 bookish predictions?

Zohar – Man of la Book

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8 Comments

  • Amused January 6, 2011 at 6:44 pm

    Intriguing propositions and I do believe many of them will come true!

  • FARfetched January 14, 2011 at 5:28 pm

    I think you have a lot of this right, except maybe it won’t all happen this year. Maybe in the next few years. Publishers will only increase royalties as an absolute last resort, and maybe only to popular (aka best-selling) authors.

    One thing you might have missed is that a flood of indie authors will form a market for support services — editing, layout, distribution, marketing — things that the old vanity press used to do (well, at least the first two). Over time, these services could morph into de facto publishers and the “money up front” model will give way to authors paying their publishers a royalty on sales. That would be good for authors, as it would give the publishers incentive to actually do some marketing.

    BTW, I think “eBook market will suppress 20% of book revenues” is a typo. Should be “surpass,” no?

    P.S. Can’t “like” as I’m not a Facebook’er. Sorry.

    • zohar January 14, 2011 at 9:10 pm

      Hi, thanks for the correction, it is much appreciated.

      I thought I actually had the support services down, I don’t know why I took it out. As someone who reads several indie books I’m a big supporter of support services.

  • LifetimeReader January 14, 2011 at 7:19 pm

    Fascinating. I do hope you are right that royalties go up. What makes you suspect that might happen?

    • zohar January 14, 2011 at 9:11 pm

      I think the royalties would go up because now writers and agents would have a negotiating advantage.
      “Don’t pay me what I think I deserve, I’ll put it out myself”.

  • Juju at Tales of Whimsy February 16, 2011 at 4:53 pm

    1. Cool picture!
    2. I like your prediction of lower eBook costs.
    3. I have a prediction too. As the popularity of eBooks increase, overpriced stores like Barnes and Noble will decrease in number. Over time this will give rise to the return of smaller independent book stores.

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